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992

Mr. Copper Explains Churn in This Market

If you want to understand why there’s so much short-term churn in this market, take a look at what’s going on with Mr. Copper right now. Copper is widely regarded as a leading indicator of market sentiment about global growth. And from that perspective, the recent rally in copper prices—copper for October delivery rose to… Read More

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Stocks Won\’t Be Enough

This post appeared originally on Forbes.com. Heard this one from your broker? “Sure, there are problems out there, but the real question is whether you think the market will be higher or lower three years from now.” Most of us are optimists, so we buy. OK, but the critical issue is really: how much higher?… Read More

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Recent Rally Unlikely to End Gold Downtrend

Gold has rallied to $1254 an ounce (on the spot market) from $1218 on December 2. The December 2 closing low was the lowest close for gold since it closed at $1201 on June 27, 2013. But I don’t think the recent rally is likely to run very far. It’s based on what is likely… Read More

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Elusive, Frustrating Turn in Gold Will Come

Gold and gold mining shares spent most of the third quarter backing and filling without establishing any clear direction. Gold increased 7.6% during the quarter, closing at $1328.6/oz, but down 20.7% year-to-date. The XAU Index of gold and silver stocks rose 4.1% during the quarter, and was down 42.5% on a year-to-date basis. The rationale… Read More

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After the Deal, Time to Worry About Earnings

Back to normal. The United States won’t default. The federal government is open again—including the Panda cam at the National Zoo. And once again earnings count. Which at least for the day isn’t good news for U.S. stocks—at least not for the Dow Jones Industrials. The Dow is down 0.32% as of 1:40 p.m. New… Read More

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Old McDonald Had A … Good Investment

This post appeared originally on Forbes.com. You’ve heard it a million times: invest in real estate because “they’re not making any more of it.” Often, that’s less than true. Manhattan hasn’t gotten any bigger, but its residential and office capacity has soared. It is more than true, however, for farmland: the number of arable acres… Read More

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Is the Fed Projecting or Pretending on Rates?

Let’s go back to some Fed “projection” analysis we did on August 19th Tomorrow we will get some new Fed projections. Suddenly people care. Below is the work we did back on August 19th. Fed Projections – Goal Seeked or Better Informed? It is worth taking a closer look at some of the Fed projections…. Read More

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Could Verizon Bond Mark a Temporary Peak?

Can you hear me now? Yesterday Verizon priced $51 billion worth of bonds at $49 billion. Technically they sold $49 billion of bonds at $49 billion that then traded to be worth $51 billion.  That is a lot of profit to those who got good allocations. That is positive for the market. Some “free money” goes… Read More

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Is a 3% Yield the Turning Point for the Treasury Market?

How Much Has the Fed Lost? We spent much of yesterday looking at the potential for 3% on the 10-year Treasury and the Fed’s treasury position. For those of you who asked the Fed had lost $105 billion on the $1.6 trillion on the bonds they owned in early March. Since the 10 -ear was… Read More

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Stocks Won’t Be Enough

This post appeared originally on Forbes.com. Heard this one from your broker? “Sure, there are problems out there, but the real question is whether you think the market will be higher or lower three years from now.” Most of us are optimists, so we buy. OK, but the critical issue is really: how much higher?… Read More