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Recent Rally Unlikely to End Gold Downtrend

Gold has rallied to $1254 an ounce (on the spot market) from $1218 on December 2. The December 2 closing low was the lowest close for gold since it closed at $1201 on June 27, 2013. But I don’t think the recent rally is likely to run very far. It’s based on what is likely… Read More

After the Deal, Time to Worry About Earnings

Back to normal. The United States won’t default. The federal government is open again—including the Panda cam at the National Zoo. And once again earnings count. Which at least... Read More

Old McDonald Had A … Good Investment

This post appeared originally on Forbes.com. You’ve heard it a million times: invest in real estate because “they’re not making any more of it.” Often, that’s less than true.... Read More

Is the Fed Projecting or Pretending on Rates?

Let’s go back to some Fed “projection” analysis we did on August 19th Tomorrow we will get some new Fed projections. Suddenly people care. Below is the work we... Read More

Could Verizon Bond Mark a Temporary Peak?

Can you hear me now? Yesterday Verizon priced $51 billion worth of bonds at $49 billion. Technically they sold $49 billion of bonds at $49 billion that then traded... Read More

Is a 3% Yield the Turning Point for the Treasury Market?

How Much Has the Fed Lost? We spent much of yesterday looking at the potential for 3% on the 10-year Treasury and the Fed’s treasury position. For those of... Read More

Stocks Won’t Be Enough

This post appeared originally on Forbes.com. Heard this one from your broker? “Sure, there are problems out there, but the real question is whether you think the market will... Read More

Holding Bonds To Balance Stocks? There Are Better Ways

This post originally appeared on Forbes.com. Before you dump bonds, remember why you have them.” So says the mainstream financial press, echoing countless advisors. Their big point is that... Read More